Hong Kong Film Awards 2024 predictions: In Broad Daylight, Time Still Turns the Pages, A Guilty Conscience and more

Below, Post film editor Edmund Lee gives his predictions for who will win in the major categories, while reflecting on who should win.

Ranking every Hong Kong film released in 2023, from worst to best

Best film

Who will win: Mad Fate

While In Broad Daylight, Time Still Turns the Pages and A Guilty Conscience are all critically acclaimed efforts that have resonated strongly with Hong Kong audiences, the odds are presumably against them in the best picture race – as they are all only their directors’ first or second films.

Lokman Yeung (left) and Lam Ka-tung in a still from Mad Fate.

If the past few years have taught us anything, it is that HKFA voters prefer to give the top prize to veterans. Although Hong Kong cinema has had an impressive run of debut features recently, none of the past five best picture prizes have gone to a newcomer.

In the resulting battle of two mid-career mavericks, Soi Cheang Pou-soi’s Mad Fate should have the edge over Felix Chong Man-keung’s The Goldfinger, being objectively the more inventive effort.

Who should win: A Guilty Conscience

Louise Wong in a still from A Guilty Conscience.

Jack Ng Wai-lun’s exhilarating court drama, currently the highest-grossing Hong Kong film in local cinema history, was seemingly punished for its crowd-pleasing aspirations at the Hong Kong Film Critics Society awards announced in January, where it was not even listed among the critics’ list of recommended films.

But the HKFA does have precedent for giving the top prize to critically ignored blockbusters, such as Ip Man in 2009 and Cold War in 2013. A few film professionals, including this writer, genuinely believe A Guilty Conscience is among the best films of 2023.

Best director

Who will win: Soi Cheang (Mad Fate)

There is a good chance that the best picture winner will also come out on top in this category, and Soi Cheang, being the most accomplished Hong Kong filmmaker who has yet to receive the HKFA best director honour, is the clear favourite here.

Lokman Yeung (left) and Ng Wing-sze in a still from Mad Fate.

Mad Fate may have lost its plot towards the end of its roller coaster ride of a story, but Cheang’s supremely confident direction of this unusual blend of murder mystery and absurdist comedy has left an indelible impression on most viewers.

Who should win: Soi Cheang (Mad Fate)

Felix Chong won this category for Project Gutenberg in 2019, and the HKFA jury may feel that the three young directors – Jack Ng, In Broad Daylight’s Lawrence Kan Kwan-chun, and Time Still Turns the Pages’ Nick Cheuk Yik-him – can wait for their turns. This is seemingly Cheang’s to lose.

Best screenplay

Who will win: A Guilty Conscience

Tse Kwan-ho in a still from A Guilty Conscience.

The HKFA’s tendency to recognise long-time excellence may play into the hands of writer-director Jack Ng, who has been a well-regarded screenwriter since the early 2000s and counts major hits Anita and Cold War 2 among his co-writing credits. His directorial debut’s embrace of legal justice, echoing the city’s zeitgeist, could earn it a few more votes.

Who should win: Mad Fate

Granted, this story co-scripted by Yau Nai-hoi and Melvin Li Chun-fai is so madly over-the-top in its third act that few members in the audience could tell you what it is all about. But there is also no denying that its high-concept exploration of the power of free will has more inspired ideas than all the other nominees put together.

Best actor

Who will win: Tony Leung (The Goldfinger)

Tony Leung in a still from The Goldfinger.

While it would be a little bit boring to give Tony Leung Chiu-wai his sixth HKFA best actor award, his larger-than-life portrayal of a charismatic con man in the extravagant period epic provides such an easy option for voters that his victory may just work itself out by default.

Who should win: Tony Leung (The Goldfinger)

Comedian Dayo Wong Tze-wah may have an outside chance based on A Guilty Conscience’s historic box office run, while television actor Bowie Lam Bo-yee’s role as an evil nursing home warden in In Broad Daylight also has its supporters (even if it hardly feels like a leading role). It would likely take a very determined jury to stop Leung from winning, however.

Best actress

Who will win: Jennifer Yu (In Broad Daylight)

Jennifer Yu in a still from In Broad Daylight.

Jennifer Yu Heung-ying is arguably the best performer in this new generation of Hong Kong film actresses and the 30-year-old’s steely portrayal of a tenacious investigative reporter looks set to win her the most important recognition of her career to date.

Who should win: Chung Suet-ying (The Lyricist Wannabe)

Chung Suet-ying in a still from The Lyricist Wannabe.

While Yu is looking like the favourite in this category (and doing so on merit), the less heralded Chung Suet-ying deserves consideration for carrying the coming-of-age comedy The Lyricist Wannabe on her own, with a delicate performance that alternately amuses and breaks your heart.

Best supporting actor

Who will win: David Chiang (In Broad Daylight)

David Chiang (left) and Jennifer Yu in a still from In Broad Daylight.

This is one of the more difficult categories to gauge. For starters, Tse Kwan-ho’s no-nonsense barrister supplies some of A Guilty Conscience’s most satisfying moments, while the 11-year-old Sean Wong Tsz-lok is the undisputed emotional core of the poignant family drama Time Still Turns the Pages.

Still, the urge for long-time Hong Kong cinema watchers to reward David Chiang Da-wei on the industry’s biggest stage may prove overwhelming. In In Broad Daylight, the former martial arts superstar lends unexpected nuance to his somewhat awkwardly scripted role as a resident in a home for the elderly.

Who should win: Wu Kang-ren (Fly Me to the Moon)

Wu Kang-ren in a still from Fly Me to the Moon.

Taiwanese actor Wu Kang-ren should be in for a shout with his visceral turn as a drug-addicted father in this family drama. Wu is also indirectly represented in the Best Asian Chinese Language Film category with the Malaysian film Abang Adik, in which he gave an even better performance – and that might have ironically harmed his chances here.

Best supporting actress

Who will win: Rachel Leung (In Broad Daylight)

Like Jennifer Yu in the best actress category, Rachel Leung Yung-ting should have meticulously prepared her acceptance speech for her inevitable win for best supporting actress. Her brave portrayal of a mentally disabled abuse victim easily stands out in what can only be described as an unremarkable field.

Rachel Leung in a still from In Broad Daylight.

Who should win: Rachel Leung (In Broad Daylight)

Judging by her clumsy appearance at the recent Asian Film Awards, Leung should perhaps also spend time practising not to trip over the microphones when she takes the stage.

Our predictions for the winners of all categories:

Best film: Mad Fate

Best director: Soi Cheang (Mad Fate)

Best screenplay: A Guilty Conscience