Demand for Apple Vision Pro headset could wane, top analyst warns

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Apple announced the Vision Pro headset at its annual Worldwide Developers Conference in 2023.

Josh Edelson | AFP | Getty Images

Apple‘s Vision Pro quickly sold out after preorders for it opened Friday, but early signs could mean demand is waning, according to top Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of TF International Securities.

Shipping times for all models of the Vision Pro increased to five to seven weeks in a matter of hours, indicating a rapid sell-out of the product, he wrote in a blog post. He estimated that Apple sold 160,000 to 180,000 Vision Pro units over the weekend. 

But those extended shipping times remained unchanged 48 hours after preorders opened, according to Kuo, who wrote that it raises a “major concern”: that “demand may quickly taper off after the core fans and heavy users place their orders.”

“Popular iPhone models also sell out immediately upon pre-order, and shipping times typically increase to several weeks within hours,” Kuo wrote. “However, unlike Vision Pro, iPhone models usually continue to see a steady increase in shipping times 24 to 48 hours after pre-orders open, indicating that demand continues to grow even after the initial [sell]-out.”

Kuo wrote in his blog that it “should not be challenging” for Apple to ship 500,000 Vision Pro units in total this year. He previously forecast that the company will only produce between 60,000 and 80,000 units for the product’s Feb. 2 release.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley predicted on Wednesday that Apple will likely ship 300,000 to 400,000 units of its virtual reality headset this year, “with further upside depending on initial sell-through feedback.” 

Wall Street analysts don’t expect the $3,499 Vision Pro to provide a significant revenue boost for Apple right away, but they are monitoring how initial reception of the new product category could signal its potential down the line. 

“Right now, Vision Pro is still a very niche product,” Kuo wrote.

Apple did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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