The S&P 500 continues to surge, making new highs for the 33rd time this year, right before US Independence Day. The index is up about 17% year-to-date.
There are valid arguments from both the bull and bear camps regarding the S&P 500’s record closes.
The bear camp might argue that inflation remains stubborn, with the Fed delaying rate cuts and potentially delaying further. Inflation could even return, as crude oil prices have risen 10% from a month ago. Unresolved conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine, rising geopolitical tensions, and tariffs against cheap Chinese exports could further fuel higher costs.
Additionally, the bear camp might point out that the S&P 500 rally has been narrow, dominated by the “magnificent seven” and the phenomenal AI run. The broader market has not caught up with the same bullishness, indicating a lack of breadth that may not be sustainable.
Personally, I sit in the bull camp. There’s no point in being a permabear because there are always things to worry about. The stock market climbs a wall of worry. Historically, the S&P 500 has continued to rise through various crises, despite spectacular crashes, each time coming back stronger and higher.
Will this trend continue? As Warren Buffett has said, “Never bet against America.” A hundred years ago, J.P. Morgan noted, “Any man who is a bear on the future of this country will go broke.” Indeed, shorting the S&P 500 is one of the most bankrupt things to do. Until another country can overtake the US, there’s no reason to bet against America. This doesn’t mean solely investing in the US; one can still invest globally. The point is to have some exposure to the US markets.
A stock or an index can keep breaking new highs, a concept many investors struggle to accept. When the price hits a high, it doesn’t have to decline. Just this year, the S&P 500 has broken record highs 33 times. Historically, there have been years where the S&P 500 recorded 30 or more new highs in a year—22 times in the past 100 years.
Being a bull doesn’t mean the S&P 500 is immune to corrections and crashes. Bulls can agree with bears that the S&P 500 might need a correction when prices become overextended. This is why it’s essential to maintain the discipline to buy stocks at fair prices when market is up, and have the conviction to buy when the market is down.
The perceived lack of broad market bullishness should be seen as a positive, suggesting opportunities to buy wonderful companies at fair prices.